Day Trading Solutions

Stock Option Trading Some traders in the world petroleum market believe that oil is priced at a war premium. Resolve outstanding issues with Iraq, the reasoning goes, and oil, which has been trading around $30 a barrel this summer, becomes a good bit cheaper. That line of thought seems prevalent among investors. Prices of big, integrated oil companies have outperformed the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index this year.

Then the Arab oil embargo came – and Houston’s economy exploded as oil prices quadrupled in 90 days.

Currency Day Trading David Wheeler, a vice president and oil industry analyst at J. P. Morgan , talked last week about Iraq and big oil. Following are excerpts from the conversation.

To prevent or reduce premenstrual symptoms, Barre, Vermont, herbalist Rosemary Gladstar, author of Herbal Healing for Women and other books about herbs, recommends a daily regimen of fish oil, flaxseed oil, evening primrose oil or black currant seed oil. linolenic acid, which helps relieve PMS symptoms, especially breast tenderness, she says. She suggests taking 500 milligrams of any one of these oils three times a day (every day, not just when you ™e experiencing symptoms) or following the dosage recommendations on the product label. The oils are available in most health food stores.

Financial Software Trading Q. Spot oil is up 15 percent since mid-June. Is there a war premium in the price?

Dollar gains yesterday were also supported by the declining oil prices that hit a 19 month low yesterday. Due to the comfortable weather and the overall declining demand for oil products, crude oil is currently trading around a barrel. Lower energy costs are considered positive for economic growth as they constitute a sizable portion of overall inputs prices. This allows manufacturers to lower prices and consumers to buy more.

Online Stock Trading Company A. There are those who say that this is a weak-fundamentals oil market inflated by a war premium. We don't agree.

The Ludwig Black Beauty snare drum is considered one of the most desirable drums ever made. The seamless, one piece brass beaded shell provides the... $416.49 Item Ships Free! $810.00 COMPARE 10x5, Red Yamaha Blem Stage Custom Snare Drum Yamaha's Stage Custom snare drum offers an excellent solution if you're looking for a new snare drum sound. These snares blend birch, mahogany, and...

Forex Day Trading I don't think there is that much of a war premium because at this point demand is growing faster than supply. Right now OPEC is not producing enough. Global oil supplies are down about 2 percent versus a year ago, and demand is up about 1 percent. And a year ago, prices were about $26 to $27 a barrel.

For a century the price of oil remained stable. Israeli war. Prices soared as OPEC, the oil cartel, blocked exports to the West. Prices tripled, the West plunged into recession, and it took years to recover. The Iranian Revolution had a similar impact. Then there was the Gulf Wars, and the resulting mess in Iraq. Oil prices have since rocketed to unprecedented levels, and even though prices may fluctuate downwards occasionally the general consensus is that they can only soar in the future. Terrorist attacks, insurgent hitting vital pipelines and other unpredictable events could easily ratchet up prices much, much higher than we have yet seen.

Financial In Market Q. So even if there is a war with Iraq, you don't see prices spiking much from here?

Stock Trading System A. I think upside price risk is very controllable. The case of an uncontrollable upside would be if Saudi Arabia were unwilling or unable to increase production. But the odds of that happening are very, very long.

Day Trading Stock Tip I am not a Middle East expert, but I don't imagine the Iraqis have had a lot of money to upgrade their missiles.

Financial Forex Forex Software Right now Iraq is just not producing that much oil. They are pumping 700,000 to 800,000 barrels a day. A decade ago, they were at 3.5 million barrels a day.

Stock Market Trading The Saudis, who have the capacity to pump an additional 4 million barrels a day above their current production level, have pledged to make up the shortfall if Iraqi oil becomes unavailable.

Day Lesson Stock Tip Trading Q. Would oil prices soften if there were a change in government in Iraq?

Financial System Trading A. It will take a long, long time for Iraq to gear up production. At best, they could keep production flat for two years. Then they could start to grow it a bit. They have huge reserves.

Day Trading Future Q. For the last two years investors have been assuming that oil prices would soften and have basically refused to bid up the integrated oil stocks. Is that view warranted?

Financial Forex Market Trading A. The stock prices reflect an expected oil price of $19 to $20 a barrel. That said, the stocks have been pretty much flat this year, which means they have outperformed the stock market by 20 percent or more.

Online Trading Stock And Our view is that oil prices are likely to stay higher than most in the equity market think. We are expecting oil prices to be in the mid-$20-a-barrel range all the way through next year. That is the good news.

Day Trading Software The other piece of good news for the stocks is that the integrated oil companies have characteristics that in today's market ought to be highly valued, things like accounting transparency, excellent cash-flow generation, very strong balance sheets and an average dividend yield of around 3 percent.

Financial Market Science Q. And yet you have a neutral rating on the sector. What is the bad news here?

Stock Trading Software A. The negative news is that we have extremely weak refining margins because oil prices have moved up and global economic growth remains weak. That makes it tough to have any pricing power for refined products, which normally account for about 30 percent of profits. We think refining margins could remain under pressure for the next six to nine months.

Emini Day Trading In addition, earnings momentum for the group is slowing, as weak refining margins are negatively impacting higher oil prices.

Financial Sales Services Finally, relative to the overall market, these stocks are no longer cheap. We estimate the group is trading at 15 times this year's earnings, which is about a 10 percent discount to the S.& P. 500 multiple. In the past, the discount has been in the 25 percent to 30 percent range.

Forex Day Trading System Q. Are there stocks in the sector that you like, despite your overall neutral rating?

Financial Services Trading A. Our top two picks are BP and Occidental Petroleum. BP is our top pick among the five supermajors because they have industry-leading volume growth, an accelerating cost-reduction program in the second half of this year, and they are attractively valued versus the other supermajors. We think fair value for the stock is 15 percent to 20 percent above current levels.

Online Stock Trading Canada Occidental is our favorite among midsized companies. They will be a huge beneficiary of high oil prices because 85 percent of their production is oil, as opposed to natural gas. Their earnings are most sensitive to changes in oil prices. Second, they have no refining assets, which means they are not exposed to the weak refining market. And management has transformed the asset base from middling to top tier. They have not yet been given credit by the market for that internal change.

Beginner Guide To Online Day By Kenneth N. Gilpin
New York Times - 9/15/2002

Topic: Petroleum Industry

[ Comment, Edit or Article Submission ]